Central and East European
Society for Phenomenology

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237016

Trying to resolve the two-envelope problem

Casper J. AlbersBarteld KooiWillem Schaafsma

pp. 89-109

Abstract

After explaining the well-known two-envelope ‘paradox’ by indicating the fallacy involved, we consider the two-envelope ‘problem’ of evaluating the ‘factual’ information provided to us in the form of the value contained by the envelope chosen first. We try to provide a synthesis of contributions from economy, psychology, logic, probability theory (in the form of Bayesian statistics), mathematical statistics (in the form of a decision-theoretic approach) and game theory. We conclude that the two-envelope problem does not allow a satisfactory solution. An interpretation is made for statistical science at large.

Publication details

Published in:

(2005) Synthese 145 (1).

Pages: 89-109

DOI: 10.1007/s11229-004-7665-5

Full citation:

Albers Casper J., Kooi Barteld, Schaafsma Willem (2005) „Trying to resolve the two-envelope problem“. Synthese 145 (1), 89–109.